Russia-Ukrainian War: An Investigation of Democracy

1 Motivation

History proves that all dictatorships, all authoritarian forms of government are transient. Only democratic systems are not transient. Whatever the shortcomings, mankind has not devised anything superior.

Can you guess who is behind the quote?

A good answer would be one of these gentlemen:

Let me help you by providing another quote by him:

The Russian people chose democracy at the beginning of the 1990s and this was their final choice.

Yes, you’re right. Those are words of Putin, The Savior of Democracy!

Nobody and nothing will stop Russia on the road to strengthening democracy and ensuring human rights and freedoms.

After months of speculation, Putin finally launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In his televised speech right at the beginning of the aggression, he revealed some of his motivations in waging a full-fledged war (or as he wants others to believe a “special military operation”). To rescue people who were abused by genocide for eight years (right after the escape of his beloved Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko), “We will strive for the demilitarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians.” Is the president of Ukraine really a fascist dictator like Hitler?

First of all, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is Jewish and he was elected by 73% of the votes in the 2019 presidential election. “Putin is not afraid of Nazis in Ukraine. He’s afraid of democracy in Ukraine. And he recognizes that as democracy encroaches upon Russia as it comes closer to Russia, there’s a threat that those people will demand democracy,” explains Jeffrey Veidlinger a professor of history at the University of Michigan.

Now we can pinpoint democracy as Putin’s main motivation to invade Ukraine. Let’s have a deeper look at the state of democracy in Ukraine and Russia.

2 What are democracy indices?

Because democracy is such a broad term that covers the interactions between many institutions in a society, measuring it quantitatively is anything but easy. Therefore, several organizations publish some key indices defined to include the true state of democracy in different countries.

International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) publishes annual global state of democracy (GSoD) which is mainly based on analyses and measurements by the V-Dem Institute (Varieties of Democracy). The V-Dem Institute’s measures of democracy are the most elaborate and granular among several well-known democracy indexes (such as the Polity data series and Freedom House’s Freedom in the World). In the image below you can see an overview of indices and subattributes of GSoD 2021.

To avoid confirmation bias (cherry picking), none of the subattributes of the main indices were excluded (I am looking at you Ancel Keys ;) )

library(dplyr)     # Data manipulation
library(tidyr)     # Pivotting
library(ggplot2)   # Visualization
library(readr)     # To import CSV files
library(stringr)   # Regex and string operations
library(ggthemes)  # Extra themes for ggplot2
library(ggforce)   # An alternative for facetting
library(ggtext)    # A flexible text styling
library(rio)
data <- import("GSoDI_v5.1.csv")
head(data)
##   ID_country_name ID_country_code ID_year ID_country_year ID_region
## 1   United States               2    1975           21975         3
## 2   United States               2    1976           21976         3
## 3   United States               2    1977           21977         3
## 4   United States               2    1978           21978         3
## 5   United States               2    1979           21979         3
## 6   United States               2    1980           21980         3
##   ID_subregion ID_region_name ID_subregion_name      C_A1      L_A1      U_A1
## 1            9  North America     North America 0.7398104 0.6772100 0.8024108
## 2            9  North America     North America 0.7537784 0.6893580 0.8181988
## 3            9  North America     North America 0.8225352 0.7589952 0.8860751
## 4            9  North America     North America 0.8216701 0.7576965 0.8856437
## 5            9  North America     North America 0.8233757 0.7588888 0.8878625
## 6            9  North America     North America 0.8295235 0.7649787 0.8940683
##      C_SD11    L_SD11    U_SD11    C_SD12    C_SD13    L_SD13    U_SD13 C_SD14
## 1 0.7798935 0.7384039 0.8213832 0.8876139 0.7535725 0.6904456 0.8166994      1
## 2 0.8257763 0.7837914 0.8677613 0.8878152 0.7535725 0.6904456 0.8166994      1
## 3 0.8272549 0.7856223 0.8688875 0.8878152 0.9399965 0.8772447 1.0027482      1
## 4 0.8299354 0.7871096 0.8727613 0.8876139 0.9399965 0.8772447 1.0027482      1
## 5 0.8311599 0.7904956 0.8718243 0.8876139 0.9399965 0.8772447 1.0027482      1
## 6 0.8503308 0.8097669 0.8908947 0.8883185 0.9399965 0.8772447 1.0027482      1
##      L_SD14   U_SD14      C_A2      L_A2      U_A2    C_SD21    L_SD21
## 1 0.7807986 1.219201 0.7963784 0.7570421 0.8357147 0.8163043 0.7885023
## 2 0.7807986 1.219201 0.7973786 0.7565185 0.8382386 0.8161837 0.7887545
## 3 0.7807986 1.219201 0.7964175 0.7544319 0.8384032 0.8181911 0.7892858
## 4 0.7807986 1.219201 0.7988995 0.7581074 0.8396917 0.8180782 0.7906192
## 5 0.7807986 1.219201 0.8033825 0.7607815 0.8459836 0.8178965 0.7901144
## 6 0.7807986 1.219201 0.8069930 0.7651112 0.8488748 0.8154543 0.7883289
##      U_SD21    C_SD22    L_SD22    U_SD22   C_SD22A   L_SD22A   U_SD22A
## 1 0.8441063 0.8702692 0.8362814 0.9042570 0.8194480 0.7827896 0.8561065
## 2 0.8436129 0.8791524 0.8451153 0.9131896 0.8403934 0.8057745 0.8750123
## 3 0.8470964 0.8678586 0.8337342 0.9019829 0.8110129 0.7720302 0.8499955
## 4 0.8455373 0.8810217 0.8478595 0.9141839 0.8403934 0.8057745 0.8750123
## 5 0.8456786 0.8809583 0.8454046 0.9165121 0.8403934 0.8057745 0.8750123
## 6 0.8425797 0.9008242 0.8663218 0.9353266 0.8403934 0.8057745 0.8750123
##     C_SD22B   L_SD22B   U_SD22B   C_SD22C   L_SD22C   U_SD22C   C_SD22D
## 1 0.7790253 0.7278980 0.8301527 0.7913092 0.7035182 0.8791002 0.9130335
## 2 0.7790253 0.7278980 0.8301527 0.7913092 0.7035182 0.8791002 0.9130335
## 3 0.7790253 0.7278980 0.8301527 0.7913092 0.7035182 0.8791002 0.9130335
## 4 0.7790253 0.7278980 0.8301527 0.7913092 0.7035182 0.8791002 0.9130335
## 5 0.7790253 0.7278980 0.8301527 0.7913092 0.7035182 0.8791002 0.9130335
## 6 0.8407630 0.7771947 0.9043312 0.7913092 0.7035182 0.8791002 0.9130335
##     L_SD22D   U_SD22D   C_SD22E   L_SD22E   U_SD22E    C_SD23    L_SD23
## 1 0.8452549 0.9808121 0.6156659 0.5773959 0.6539359 0.5638445 0.5140654
## 2 0.8452549 0.9808121 0.6247496 0.5872798 0.6622194 0.5646742 0.5138272
## 3 0.8452549 0.9808121 0.6247496 0.5872798 0.6622194 0.5641708 0.5117967
## 4 0.8452549 0.9808121 0.6247496 0.5872798 0.6622194 0.5641128 0.5130100
## 5 0.8452549 0.9808121 0.6247496 0.5872798 0.6622194 0.5693590 0.5186639
## 6 0.8452549 0.9808121 0.6300445 0.5928437 0.6672453 0.5941150 0.5427906
##      U_SD23   C_SD23A   L_SD23A   U_SD23A   C_SD23B   L_SD23B   U_SD23B
## 1 0.6136236 0.6128647 0.5851979 0.6405316 0.6013092 0.5793947 0.6232238
## 2 0.6155211 0.6128647 0.5851979 0.6405316 0.6031382 0.5811230 0.6251534
## 3 0.6165450 0.6128647 0.5851979 0.6405316 0.6031382 0.5811230 0.6251534
## 4 0.6152155 0.6128647 0.5851979 0.6405316 0.6031382 0.5811230 0.6251534
## 5 0.6200540 0.6128647 0.5851979 0.6405316 0.6330919 0.6110820 0.6551018
## 6 0.6454395 0.6152796 0.5867476 0.6438116 0.6320925 0.6101578 0.6540273
##     C_SD23C   L_SD23C   U_SD23C      C_A3      L_A3      U_A3    C_SD31
## 1 0.5172835 0.4734056 0.5611615 0.8047956 0.7311679 0.8784233 0.7815669
## 2 0.5195193 0.4756143 0.5634244 0.8048437 0.7342891 0.8753982 0.7720701
## 3 0.5195193 0.4756143 0.5634244 0.7991261 0.7264331 0.8718190 0.7648131
## 4 0.5195193 0.4756143 0.5634244 0.7997795 0.7301537 0.8694053 0.7648131
## 5 0.5195193 0.4756143 0.5634244 0.7986350 0.7277462 0.8695237 0.7648131
## 6 0.6011718 0.5555027 0.6468410 0.7989040 0.7284247 0.8693834 0.7648131
##      L_SD31    U_SD31    C_SD32    L_SD32    U_SD32    C_SD33    L_SD33
## 1 0.7361285 0.8270053 0.7836402 0.7380429 0.8292375 0.8517110 0.8087777
## 2 0.7257756 0.8183646 0.7836402 0.7380429 0.8292375 0.8535008 0.8104868
## 3 0.7155492 0.8140770 0.7836402 0.7380429 0.8292375 0.8511685 0.8081338
## 4 0.7155492 0.8140770 0.7836402 0.7380429 0.8292375 0.8511321 0.8091615
## 5 0.7155492 0.8140770 0.7836402 0.7380429 0.8292375 0.8512367 0.8064033
## 6 0.7155492 0.8140770 0.7836402 0.7380429 0.8292375 0.8476980 0.8041663
##      U_SD33      C_A4      L_A4      U_A4    C_SD41    L_SD41    U_SD41
## 1 0.8946443 0.7655589 0.7264746 0.8046433 0.7602834 0.7230680 0.7974987
## 2 0.8965147 0.7647243 0.7254348 0.8040138 0.7602834 0.7230680 0.7974987
## 3 0.8942032 0.7660949 0.7295670 0.8026227 0.7602834 0.7230680 0.7974987
## 4 0.8931028 0.7675292 0.7279267 0.8071317 0.7602834 0.7230680 0.7974987
## 5 0.8960702 0.7660485 0.7264505 0.8056465 0.7602834 0.7230680 0.7974987
## 6 0.8912296 0.7780961 0.7385653 0.8176270 0.7799461 0.7458121 0.8140800
##      C_SD42    L_SD42    U_SD42    C_SD51    L_SD51    U_SD51 C_SD52 C_SD53
## 1 0.7647594 0.7232805 0.8062384 0.7884560 0.7363372 0.8405749 0.3823      0
## 2 0.7726957 0.7321896 0.8132017 0.7884560 0.7363372 0.8405749 0.5692      0
## 3 0.7726957 0.7321896 0.8132017 0.7884560 0.7363372 0.8405749 0.5692      0
## 4 0.7726957 0.7321896 0.8132017 0.7884560 0.7363372 0.8405749 0.3720      0
## 5 0.7726957 0.7321896 0.8132017 0.7884560 0.7363372 0.8405749 0.3720      0
## 6 0.7726957 0.7321896 0.8132017 0.7917094 0.7334344 0.8499843 0.5654      0
##      C_SD54   v_11_01   v_11_02   v_11_03   v_11_04   v_11_05 v_11_06 v_12_01
## 1 0.7794910 0.8156604 0.6138818 0.6768201 0.8233720 0.7198639       1       1
## 2 0.7794910 0.8156604 0.6138818 0.7466109 0.8238180 0.8076798       1       1
## 3 0.7794910 0.8156604 0.6138818 0.7466109 0.8238180 0.8076798       1       1
## 4 0.7794910 0.8156604 0.6138818 0.7456067 0.8227773 0.8151329       1       1
## 5 0.7794910 0.8156604 0.6138818 0.7456067 0.8227773 0.8151329       1       1
## 6 0.8847305 0.8156604 0.7353875 0.7464435 0.8899792 0.8075178       1       1
##     v_12_02   v_13_01   v_13_02   v_13_03   v_13_04 v_13_05 v_13_06 v_14_01
## 1 0.6628416 0.8258508 0.8351748 0.9666021 0.9368421       1       1       1
## 2 0.6634456 0.8258508 0.8351748 0.9666021 0.9405355       1       1       1
## 3 0.6634456 0.9598977 1.0000000 0.9666021 0.9405355       1       1       1
## 4 0.6628416 0.9598977 1.0000000 0.9666021 0.9362881       1       1       1
## 5 0.6628416 0.9598977 1.0000000 0.9666021 0.9362881       1       1       1
## 6 0.6649555 0.9598977 1.0000000 0.9666021 0.9377655       1       1       1
##   v_14_02 v_14_03 v_14_04   v_21_01   v_21_02   v_21_03   v_21_04 v_21_05
## 1       1       1       1 0.8347694 0.7881236 0.7377918 0.8257347       1
## 2       1       1       1 0.8347694 0.7881236 0.7377918 0.8257347       1
## 3       1       1       1 0.8347694 0.7881236 0.7377918 0.8257347       1
## 4       1       1       1 0.8347694 0.7881236 0.7377918 0.8257347       1
## 5       1       1       1 0.8347694 0.7881236 0.7377918 0.8257347       1
## 6       1       1       1 0.8347694 0.7881236 0.7377918 0.8257347       1
##     v_22_01   v_22_02   v_22_03   v_22_04  v_22_05   v_22_06 v_22_07 v_22_08
## 1 0.7783092 0.7334609 0.7311861 0.8462072 0.840461 0.9696884       1      NA
## 2 0.7783092 0.8264079 0.8354450 0.8462072 0.840461 0.9696884       1      NA
## 3 0.6684665 0.8264079 0.8354450 0.8462072 0.840461 0.9696884       1      NA
## 4 0.8099352 0.8264079 0.8354450 0.8462072 0.840461 0.9696884       1      NA
## 5 0.8099352 0.8264079 0.8354450 0.8462072 0.840461 0.9696884       1      NA
## 6 0.8099352 0.8264079 0.8354450 0.8462072 0.840461 0.9696884       1      NA
##     v_22_11   v_22_12   v_22_13 v_22_14 v_22_15 v_22_16   v_22_21   v_22_22
## 1 0.7168710 0.9408733 0.8614549       1      NA      NA 0.9526773 0.9110335
## 2 0.7168710 0.9408733 0.8614549       1      NA      NA 0.9526773 0.9110335
## 3 0.7168710 0.9408733 0.8614549       1      NA      NA 0.9526773 0.9110335
## 4 0.7168710 0.9408733 0.8614549       1      NA      NA 0.9526773 0.9110335
## 5 0.7168710 0.9408733 0.8614549       1      NA      NA 0.9526773 0.9110335
## 6 0.7860479 0.9408733 0.8685481       1      NA      NA 0.9526773 0.9110335
##   v_22_23 v_22_24   v_22_31   v_22_32   v_22_33 v_22_34 v_22_35 v_22_36
## 1       1      NA 0.8787879 0.8814138 0.9242258       1      NA      NA
## 2       1      NA 0.8787879 0.8814138 0.9242258       1      NA      NA
## 3       1      NA 0.9218422 0.8814138 0.9242258       1      NA      NA
## 4       1      NA 0.9218422 0.8814138 0.9242258       1      NA      NA
## 5       1      NA 0.9218422 0.8814138 0.9242258       1      NA      NA
## 6       1      NA 0.9218422 0.8814138 0.9242258       1      NA      NA
##     v_22_41   v_22_42  v_22_43   v_22_44 v_22_45 v_22_46 v_22_47   v_23_01
## 1 0.8286239 0.7459654 0.783451 0.7944549      NA      NA      NA 0.7914938
## 2 0.8286239 0.7459654 0.783451 0.7944549       1      NA      NA 0.7914938
## 3 0.8286239 0.7459654 0.783451 0.7944549       1      NA      NA 0.7914938
## 4 0.8286239 0.7459654 0.783451 0.7944549       1      NA      NA 0.7914938
## 5 0.8286239 0.7459654 0.783451 0.7944549       1      NA      NA 0.7914938
## 6 0.8286239 0.7883285 0.783451 0.7944549       1      NA      NA 0.7914938
##     v_23_02   v_23_03   v_23_04   v_23_05   v_23_06   v_23_07   v_23_08
## 1 0.5264593 0.7198084 0.6432076 0.5843778 0.7927835 0.9703476 0.8100616
## 2 0.5264593 0.7198084 0.6432076 0.5843778 0.7927835 0.9703476 0.8100616
## 3 0.5264593 0.7198084 0.6432076 0.5843778 0.7927835 0.9703476 0.8100616
## 4 0.5264593 0.7198084 0.6432076 0.5843778 0.7927835 0.9703476 0.8100616
## 5 0.5264593 0.7198084 0.6432076 0.5843778 0.7927835 0.9703476 0.8100616
## 6 0.5264593 0.6944920 0.6432076 0.5843778 0.8103093 0.9764826 0.8234086
##     v_23_09 v_23_10   v_23_21   v_23_22   v_23_23 v_23_24   v_23_25   v_23_26
## 1 0.9236402      NA 0.9205114 0.8204495 0.6571429      NA 0.5290898 0.6216136
## 2 0.9236402      NA 0.9244024 0.8242879 0.7094567      NA 0.5303643 0.6399704
## 3 0.9236402      NA 0.9282935 0.8303995 0.6981891      NA 0.5314104 0.6399704
## 4 0.9236402      NA 0.9321845 0.8319274 0.7062374      NA 0.5322498 0.6399704
## 5 0.9236402      NA 0.9355197 0.8387843 0.7299799      NA 0.5329119 0.6399704
## 6 0.9382845      NA 0.9388549 0.8358030 0.7154930      NA 0.5334207 0.6399704
##     v_23_27   v_23_31   v_23_32   v_23_33    v_23_34   v_23_35 v_23_36 v_23_37
## 1 0.5174436 0.5573244 0.7857755 0.7015473 0.05803922 0.6905504      NA      NA
## 2 0.5174436 0.5573244 0.7857755 0.7036014 0.06901961 0.6905504      NA      NA
## 3 0.5174436 0.5573244 0.7857755 0.7057346 0.06901961 0.6905504      NA      NA
## 4 0.5174436 0.5573244 0.7857755 0.7079000 0.06431373 0.6905504      NA      NA
## 5 0.5174436 0.5573244 0.7857755 0.7099843 0.06431373 0.6905504      NA      NA
## 6 0.5174436 0.6643196 0.8490146 0.7118832 0.05803922 0.7871236      NA      NA
##     v_31_01   v_31_02   v_31_03   v_31_04 v_31_05   v_32_01   v_32_02   v_32_03
## 1 0.8941822 0.6870727 0.9220227 0.8193481       1 0.8165138 0.7169402 0.8726134
## 2 0.8577387 0.6870727 0.9220227 0.8193481       1 0.8165138 0.7169402 0.8726134
## 3 0.8577387 0.6314199 0.9220227 0.8193481       1 0.8165138 0.7169402 0.8726134
## 4 0.8577387 0.6314199 0.9220227 0.8193481       1 0.8165138 0.7169402 0.8726134
## 5 0.8577387 0.6314199 0.9220227 0.8193481       1 0.8165138 0.7169402 0.8726134
## 6 0.8577387 0.6314199 0.9220227 0.8193481       1 0.8165138 0.7169402 0.8726134
##     v_32_04 v_32_05 v_32_06 v_33_01   v_33_02   v_33_03   v_33_04 v_33_05
## 1 0.8843989      NA      NA 0.89729 0.7439784 0.7935921 0.9508222       1
## 2 0.8843989      NA      NA 0.89729 0.7439784 0.7935921 0.9508222       1
## 3 0.8843989      NA      NA 0.89729 0.7439784 0.7935921 0.9508222       1
## 4 0.8843989      NA      NA 0.89729 0.7439784 0.7935921 0.9508222       1
## 5 0.8843989      NA      NA 0.89729 0.7439784 0.7935921 0.9508222       1
## 6 0.8843989      NA      NA 0.89729 0.7278087 0.7935921 0.9508222       1
##     v_41_01   v_41_02   v_41_03   v_41_04 v_41_05   v_42_01   v_42_02   v_42_03
## 1 0.6507011 0.8165598 0.9171806 0.7729964      NA 0.7401238 0.8236634 0.7706883
## 2 0.6507011 0.8165598 0.9171806 0.7729964      NA 0.7607606 0.8236634 0.7706883
## 3 0.6507011 0.8165598 0.9171806 0.7729964      NA 0.7607606 0.8236634 0.7706883
## 4 0.6507011 0.8165598 0.9171806 0.7729964      NA 0.7607606 0.8236634 0.7706883
## 5 0.6507011 0.8165598 0.9171806 0.7729964      NA 0.7607606 0.8236634 0.7706883
## 6 0.7009579 0.8165598 0.9171806 0.7729964      NA 0.7607606 0.8236634 0.7706883
##     v_42_04   v_42_05 v_42_06   v_51_01   v_51_02   v_51_03   v_51_04   v_51_05
## 1 0.7777388 0.7706883      NA 0.8648316 0.8215522 0.7552493 0.6821079 0.6143079
## 2 0.7777388 0.7706883      NA 0.8648316 0.8215522 0.8649934 0.6821079 0.6143079
## 3 0.7777388 0.7706883      NA 0.8648316 0.8326601 0.8649934 0.6821079 0.6143079
## 4 0.7777388 0.7706883      NA 0.8648316 0.8326601 0.8649934 0.6821079 0.6143079
## 5 0.7777388 0.7706883      NA 0.8648316 0.8326601 0.8649934 0.6821079 0.6143079
## 6 0.7777388 0.7706883      NA 0.8648316 0.8884882 0.8899278 0.6634541 0.6143079
##     v_51_06 v_52_01 v_53_01 v_53_02  v_54_01   v_54_02 regime_status_name
## 1 0.7149055  0.3823       0       1 0.998996 0.7794910          Democracy
## 2 0.7149055  0.5692       0       1 0.998996 0.7794910          Democracy
## 3 0.7149055  0.5692       0       1 0.998996 0.7794910          Democracy
## 4 0.6746204  0.3720       0       1 0.998996 0.7794910          Democracy
## 5 0.7155253  0.3720       0       1 0.998996 0.7794910          Democracy
## 6 0.5912612  0.5654       0       1 0.998996 0.8847305          Democracy
##   democratic_performance_name democratic_performance_numeric
## 1   High performing democracy                              1
## 2   High performing democracy                              1
## 3   High performing democracy                              1
## 4   High performing democracy                              1
## 5   High performing democracy                              1
## 6   High performing democracy                              1

The dataset consists of many variables which are different attributes, subattributes, and indicators. We can select and rename our desired variables (subattributes) according to the codebook provided with the dataset.

attributes <- tibble(attribute = c("A1", "A2", "A3", "A4", "A5"),
                     indices = c(
                       "Representative Government ",
                       "Fundamental Rights",
                       "Checks on Government",
                       "Impartial Administration",
                       "Participatory Engagement"
                       )
                     ) 

data <- data %>% 
  select(ID_country_name, ID_year, C_SD11, C_SD12,
         C_SD13, C_SD14, C_SD21, C_SD22A, C_SD22B,
         C_SD22C, C_SD22D, C_SD22E, C_SD23A, C_SD23B, 
         C_SD23C, C_SD31, C_SD32, C_SD33, C_SD41, 
         C_SD42, C_SD51, C_SD52, C_SD53, C_SD54, 
         democratic_performance_name,
         democratic_performance_numeric) %>%
  rename(country = ID_country_name, 
         year = ID_year,  
         clean_elections_A1 = C_SD11, 
         inclusive_suffrage_A1 = C_SD12,
         free_political_parties_A1 = C_SD13, 
         elected_government_A1 = C_SD14, 
         access_to_justice_A2 = C_SD21, 
         freedom_of_expression_A2 = C_SD22A, 
         freedom_of_association_and_assembly_A2 = C_SD22B,
         freedom_of_religion_A2 = C_SD22C, 
         freedom_of_movement_A2 = C_SD22D, 
         personal_integrity_and_security_A2 = C_SD22E, 
         social_group_equality_A2 = C_SD23A, 
         basic_welfare_A2 = C_SD23B, 
         gender_equality_A2 = C_SD23C, 
         effective_parliament_A3 = C_SD31, 
         judicial_independence_A3 = C_SD32,  
         media_integrity_A3 = C_SD33, 
         absence_of_corruption_A4 = C_SD41,  
         predictable_enforcement_A4 = C_SD42, 
         civil_society_participation_A5 = C_SD51, 
         electoral_participation_A5 = C_SD52,
         direct_democracy_A5 = C_SD53, 
         local_democracy_A5 = C_SD54) %>%
  filter(country %in% c("Russia", "Ukraine", "World") &
           year >= 1991)

head(data)
##   country year clean_elections_A1 inclusive_suffrage_A1
## 1  Russia 1991          0.5389405             0.9508783
## 2  Russia 1992          0.5501251             0.9508783
## 3  Russia 1993          0.5648654             0.8879158
## 4  Russia 1994          0.5684420             0.8879158
## 5  Russia 1995          0.5674261             0.8884695
## 6  Russia 1996          0.5502556             0.8884695
##   free_political_parties_A1 elected_government_A1 access_to_justice_A2
## 1                 0.3792062             0.6091381            0.3870421
## 2                 0.4463138             0.6091381            0.5212934
## 3                 0.4774513             0.5082715            0.5130469
## 4                 0.4774513             0.6091381            0.5376810
## 5                 0.4774513             0.6091381            0.5383441
## 6                 0.4774513             0.6091381            0.5449177
##   freedom_of_expression_A2 freedom_of_association_and_assembly_A2
## 1                0.4806488                              0.4722338
## 2                0.6384168                              0.5657210
## 3                0.6284743                              0.5351115
## 4                0.6467827                              0.6356033
## 5                0.6270683                              0.6356033
## 6                0.6270683                              0.6356033
##   freedom_of_religion_A2 freedom_of_movement_A2
## 1              0.4790002              0.4444625
## 2              0.5166017              0.5529897
## 3              0.5644861              0.6388810
## 4              0.5644861              0.5822469
## 5              0.5377195              0.6388810
## 6              0.5377195              0.6388810
##   personal_integrity_and_security_A2 social_group_equality_A2 basic_welfare_A2
## 1                          0.3747407                0.5507497        0.5695442
## 2                          0.4162908                0.5616480        0.5627817
## 3                          0.4179640                0.5603379        0.5634584
## 4                          0.4152791                0.5629084        0.5619781
## 5                          0.4005819                0.5465773        0.5619781
## 6                          0.4046204                0.5468224        0.5623697
##   gender_equality_A2 effective_parliament_A3 judicial_independence_A3
## 1          0.5141991               0.4608395                0.3074962
## 2          0.5213444               0.5012832                0.4140868
## 3          0.5273237               0.3667204                0.4118214
## 4          0.5305897               0.5333813                0.3739641
## 5          0.5236534               0.5333813                0.3753601
## 6          0.5236534               0.5333813                0.3876028
##   media_integrity_A3 absence_of_corruption_A4 predictable_enforcement_A4
## 1          0.5522191                0.3620532                  0.3837762
## 2          0.6588342                0.3125846                  0.4074090
## 3          0.6583254                0.3125846                  0.3905603
## 4          0.6610896                0.2735342                  0.4127136
## 5          0.6737043                0.2735342                  0.4127136
## 6          0.6696072                0.2668856                  0.4231593
##   civil_society_participation_A5 electoral_participation_A5 direct_democracy_A5
## 1                      0.4520171                     0.7327           0.1604780
## 2                      0.5018751                     0.7327           0.1604780
## 3                      0.5018751                     0.4722           0.1809646
## 4                      0.5018751                     0.4722           0.1809646
## 5                      0.5018751                     0.6277           0.1809646
## 6                      0.5018751                     0.6761           0.1809646
##   local_democracy_A5 democratic_performance_name democratic_performance_numeric
## 1          0.2808150               Hybrid Regime                              4
## 2          0.3487219               Hybrid Regime                              4
## 3          0.3487219              Weak democracy                              3
## 4          0.4243768              Weak democracy                              3
## 5          0.4243768              Weak democracy                              3
## 6          0.4243768              Weak democracy                              3

3 The summary of the notebook

3.1 The latest state of democracy in the two nations

The bar graph below is the main result of the notebook. It consists of the latest values of all the attributes and subattributes of the Global State of Democracy indices for Ukraine, Russia, and the world in 2020.

data %>%
  filter(year == 2020) %>%
  select(-c(
    year, 
    democratic_performance_name, 
    democratic_performance_numeric
    )
  ) %>%
  pivot_longer(!country, 
               names_to = "subattribute",
               values_to = "value") %>%
  mutate(attribute = str_extract(subattribute, "A\\d$")) %>%
  left_join(attributes) %>%
  mutate(country = factor(country, 
                          levels = c("World", "Ukraine", "Russia"), 
                          ordered = TRUE),
         subattribute = str_replace_all(subattribute, "_", " "),
         subattribute = str_remove(subattribute, "A\\d"),
         subattribute = str_to_sentence(subattribute)) %>%
  ggplot(aes(subattribute, value, fill = country)) +
  geom_col(width = 0.7, position = "dodge") +
  facet_col(~indices, 
             scales = "free",
             space = "free") +
  coord_flip() +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c(Russia = "#D62828", 
                               World = "#004266",
                               Ukraine = "#FCB322"
                               )
                    ) +
  theme_hc() +
  theme(
    axis.text = element_text(face = "bold", color = "grey40"),
    axis.title = element_text(color = "grey40"),
    plot.title = element_markdown(hjust = 1, color = "grey40"),
    plot.subtitle = element_text(color = "grey40"),
    legend.position = "none",
    strip.background = element_rect(fill = "lavender"),
    strip.text = element_text(face = "bold", color = "grey40")) +
  labs(title = "Subattributes of democracy in <span style = 'color:#004266;'>                  the world</span>, <span style = 'color:#FCB322;'>Ukraine
               </span>, and <span style = 'color:#D62828;'>Russia</span>
               in 2020",
       subtitle = "The values are between 0 and 1; higher is better",
       x = NULL)
## Joining, by = "attribute"

At the end of 2020 Ukraine did better than Russia in 18 out of 22 democracy-related items. It also scored better than the world average in more than half of the attributes. So, in contrast to what Kremlin asserts, not only Ukraine is not a “neo-Nazi” or “fascist” state but is far more democratic than Russia.

3.2 Historic state of democracy: russia vs. ukraine

# Defining a function for drawing plots

theme_costum <- function (base_size = 11, base_family = "") {
  theme_classic() +
    theme(
      plot.title = element_text(color = "grey40"),
      plot.subtitle = element_text(color = "grey40"),
      axis.title = element_text(color = "grey40"),
      axis.line = element_line(color = "grey70", size = 1),
      axis.ticks = element_line(color = "grey70"),
      axis.text = element_text(color = "grey40"),
      legend.position = "none"
    )
}

data %>%
  filter(country %in% c("Russia", "Ukraine")) %>%
  mutate(country_code = ifelse(country == "Ukraine", "ua", "ru")) %>%
  ggplot(aes(year, reorder(democratic_performance_name,
                           -democratic_performance_numeric),
             group = country
             )
         ) +
  geom_point(aes(year, 
                 reorder(democratic_performance_name,
                         -democratic_performance_numeric),
                 col = country
                 ), 
             size = 3
             ) +
  ggbump::geom_bump(aes(col = country), 
                    size = 2, 
                    lineend = "round") +
  scale_color_manual(values = c(Russia = "#D62828",
                                Ukraine = "#FCB322"
                                )
                     ) +
  #geom_flag(data = . %>% 
   #           filter(year == max(year)),
    #        aes(x = year + 1, 
     #           y = democratic_performance_name,
      #          country = country_code
       #         )
        #    ) +
  labs(title = "Government systems in <span style = 'color:#FCB322;'>Ukraine
                </span> and <span style = 'color:#D62828;'>Russia</span>
                from 1991 to 2020",
       y = "The ruling system"
       ) +
  theme_costum() +
  theme(
    panel.background = element_rect(fill = "grey99"),
    legend.position = "none",
    plot.title = element_markdown()
    )

Both Ukraine and Russia entered the 90s as a hybrid regime. Both countries began the 21 century as democratic nations (although weak ones). But their path began to change when Putin became the president in 2000 leading his country into a more authoritarian regime. In contrast, as soon as Zelenskyy got the post in 2019, Ukraine experienced a great leap towards a full-fledged democracy. Now we can confer why Putin’s fear of democracy is so urgent.

The rest of the notebook deal with the historical state of attributes and subattributes in Ukraine, Russia, and the world in detail.

graph_index <- function(index){
  subattribute <- as.character(index) %>%
    str_replace_all("_", " ") %>%
    str_remove_all("A\\d") %>%
    str_to_sentence()
  
  ggplot() +
    geom_path(data = data, 
              aes(year, 
                  .data[[index]],
                  group = country,
                  col = country
                  ), 
              size = 1.5
              ) +
    scale_color_manual(values = c(Russia = "#D62828", 
                                  World = "#004266",
                                  Ukraine = "#FCB322"
                                  )
                       ) +
    scale_y_continuous(expand = c(0, 0)) +
    scale_x_continuous(n.breaks = 6) +
    labs(title = 
           str_c(subattribute,
                 "in <span style = 'color:#004266;'>the world</span>, 
                 <span style = 'color:#FCB322;'>Ukraine</span>, and 
                 <span style = 'color:#D62828;'>Russia</span>
                 from 1991 to 2020"),
         subtitle = "The values are between 0 and 1; higher is better",
         y = subattribute
         ) +
    theme_costum() +
  theme(plot.title = element_markdown())
}

4 The state of democracy indices in the last 30 years

Now is the time to delve deeper into the details of the historical trends of different indices of democracy. The brief introduction for each attribute and subattribute is mostly from the attached codebook of the GSod dataset.

4.1 Representative government

The representative government attribute emphasizes contested and inclusive popular elections for legislative and executive offices. This attribute distinguishes among four subattributes. Three of them (clean elections, free political parties, and elected government) have been aggregated into a contestation index using Bayesian factor analysis. The representative government index is obtained by multiplying the contestation index by the fourth subattribute, inclusive suffrage.

4.1.1 Clean elections

The clean elections subattribute denotes the extent to which elections for national, representative political offices are free from irregularities. Two of the indicators reflect free elections more generally, whereas the other indicators capture more specific aspects of this feature, such as irregularities in voter registration and government intimidation.

Ukraine_seg = tibble(x = rep(c(2004, 2010, 2019), 2), 
                     xend = rep(c(2004, 2010, 2019), 2),
                     y = c(rep(0.7, 3), rep(0.28, 3)), 
                     yend =c(rep(0.8, 3), rep(0.32, 3))
                     )

Russia_seg = tibble(x = c(2000, 2011),
                    xend = c(2000, 2011),
                    y = rep(0.28, 2),
                    yend = rep(0.42, 2))

Ukraine_label = tibble(x = c(2004, 2010, 2019),
                       y = rep(0.75, 3),
                       label = c("The orange revolution",
                                 "Russophile Yanukovych became\nUkraine's president",
                                 "Zelensky became\npresident"))

graph_index("clean_elections_A1") +
  geom_segment(data = Ukraine_seg, 
               aes(x = x, xend = xend, 
                   y = y, yend = yend
                   ),
               color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_segment(data = Russia_seg, 
               aes(x = x, xend = xend, 
                   y = y, yend = yend
                   ),
               color = "#D62828"
               ) +
  geom_label(data = Ukraine_label, 
             aes(x = x, y = y, label = label),
             label.size = NA,
             label.padding = unit(0, "lines"),
             size = 3
             ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2000,
                 y = 0.36, 
                 label = "Putin's presidency\nbegan"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2011, 
                 y = 0.36, 
                 label = "The worst protests\nafter the fall of USSR"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             )

After Putin’s inauguration, Russia’s path in this subattribute was steadily downward. On the other hand, Ukraine improved its grave situation after the Orange Revolution under Yushchenko’s administration. However, the state of clean elections deteriorated under Yanukovych’s administration, and finally, it improved largely after Zelenskyy became the president.

4.1.2 Inclusive suffrage

The inclusive suffrage subattribute denotes the extent to which adult citizens have equal and universal passive and active voting rights.

graph_index("inclusive_suffrage_A1")

In this subattribute the latest score for Ukraine and Russia are the same as the world’s average. However, while Russia gradually descended from its initial superior state after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine improved.

4.1.3 Free political parties

The free political parties subattribute denotes the extent to which political parties are free to form and campaign for political office. Six indicators, partly based on expert surveys and partly in-house coded, are used to measure how free political parties are. All of them reflect whether political parties generally, and opposition parties in particular, are allowed to organize freely and run in elections.

Ukraine_seg = tibble(x = rep(2010, 2),
                     xend = rep(2010, 2),
                     y = c(0.35, 0.65),
                     yend = c(0.38, 0.75)
                     )

graph_index("free_political_parties_A1") +
  geom_segment(data = Ukraine_seg,
               aes(x = x, y = y, xend = xend, yend = yend), 
               color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_segment(aes(x = 2000,
                   y = 0.35,
                   xend = 2000,
                   yend = 0.41
                   ),
               color = "#D62828"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2010,
                 y = 0.7, 
                 label = "Russophile Yanukovych became \n Ukraine's president"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2000,
                 y = 0.38,
                 label = "Putin became president",
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             )

Yanukovych’s presidency was a turning point for the freedom of political parties in Ukraine. There are allegations of attempts to destroy the opposition party during his term. In Russia, after Putin became the leader, opposition to his own party became more restricted.

4.1.4 Elected government

The elected government subattribute denotes the extent to which national and representative government offices are filled through elections. All the indicators have a rather formal focus, which means that they do not assess the quality of elections or fully capture the extent to which reserved domains and undue influence from non-elected groups might in practice restrict elected officials’ effective power to govern.

graph_index("elected_government_A1") +
  geom_segment(aes(x = rep(2014,2),
                   y = c(1, 0.5),
                   xend = rep(2014,2),
                   yend = c(1.1, 0.55)
                   ),
               color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2014, 
                 y = 1.05,
                 label = "Independence of Crimea,\nDonetsk and Luhansk"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             )

Aside from the Independence of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk in 2014 Both countries experienced a constant state of the elected government subattribute.

4.2 Fundamental rights

Fundamental Rights in the form of liberal and social rights support both fair representation and the vertical mechanism of accountability that the first attribute seeks to achieve. This attribute is composed of three subattributes: access to justice, civil liberties, and social rights and equality. Each of these three attributes is divided into several subcomponents which are presented in the notebook.

4.2.1 Freedom of expression

The freedom of expression subcomponent is measured using indicators from V-Dem, CLD, and CIRIGHTS. The questions underlying the CLD and CIRIGHTS variables are fairly encompassing, whereas the V-Dem variables are more specific and refer to different aspects of media freedom and to the right to openly discuss political issues and express political opinions outside the mass media.

Ukraine_seg = tibble(x = rep(c(2004, 2005, 2010, 2014), 2),
                     y = c(rep(0.67, 4), rep(0.35, 4)),
                     xend = rep(c(2004, 2005, 2010, 2014), 2),
                     yend = c(rep(0.78, 4), rep(0.38, 4))
                     )
graph_index("freedom_of_expression_A2") +
  geom_segment(data = Ukraine_seg,
               aes(x = x, y = y, xend = xend, yend = yend),
               color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_segment(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.35, xend = 2000, yend = 0.45),
               color = "#D62828"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = c(2004, 2007.5, 2014),
                 y = rep(0.72, 3),
                 label = c("Orange\nRevolution",
                           "Yushchenko's\npresidency",
                           "Revolution of Dignity;\nIndependence of Crimea,\nDonetsk and Luhansk")
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3,
             label.padding = unit(0, "lines")
             ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.4, label = "Putin took office"),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             )

After a period of stability in Russia, Putin made Russia a worse place for freedom of expression. Following The Orange Revolution in Ukraine, freedom of expression became more restricted. It bounced back under Yushchenko’s presidency but again deteriorated after The Revolution of Dignity in 2014.

4.2.2 Freedom of association and assembly

This subcomponent is an aggregate of six indicators that directly refer to freedom of association for political and civil groups. These six indicators were aggregated into the freedom of association and assembly subcomponent using item response theory.

Ukraine_seg = tibble(x = rep(c(2004, 2005, 2010, 2014), 2),
                     y = c(rep(0.7, 4), rep(0.35, 4)),
                     xend = rep(c(2004, 2005, 2010, 2014), 2),
                     yend = c(rep(0.84, 4), rep(0.4, 4))
                     )

graph_index("freedom_of_association_and_assembly_A2") +
  geom_segment(data = Ukraine_seg,
               aes(x = x, y = y, xend = xend, yend = yend),
               color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_segment(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.35, xend = 2000, yend = 0.45),
               color = "#D62828"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = c(2004, 2007.5, 2014),
                 y = rep(0.77, 3),
                 label = c("Orange\nRevolution",
                           "Yushchenko's\npresidency",
                           "Revolution of Dignity;\nIndependence of Crimea,\nDonetsk and Luhansk ")
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3,
             label.padding = unit(0, "lines")
             ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.4, label = "Putin took office"),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             )

It seems freedom of expression and freedom of association and assembly are highly correlated. The trends and turning points are much the same as what we saw in the previous graph.

4.2.3 Freedom of religion

A separate subcomponent index comprised of two V-Dem general indicators on religious freedom based on expert surveys and two similarly broad in-house coded variables from CLD and CIRIGHTS. The four indicators were aggregated into the freedom of religion subcomponent using item response theory.

graph_index("freedom_of_religion_A2") +
  expand_limits(y = c(0.3, 0.7))

Aside from the period of 2012-2016 during which Ukraine’s freedom of religion declined, both countries experienced a steady state of freedom of religion in the last 20 years.

4.2.4 Freedom of movement

Freedom of movement was captured by a general, in-house coded indicator from CLD, two specific in-house coded indicators from CIRIGHTS and three, more specific, expert coded indicators from V-Dem that distinguish between foreign and domestic movement and provide assessments of the latter feature for men and women. The six indicators were aggregated into the freedom of movement subcomponent using item response theory.

graph_index("freedom_of_movement_A2") +
  geom_segment(aes(x = rep(c(2010, 2014), 2),
                   y = c(rep(0.9, 2), rep(0.4, 2)),
                   xend = rep(c(2010, 2014), 2),
                   yend = c(rep(0.95, 2), rep(0.45, 2))
                   ),
                color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2012,
                 y = 0.92,
                 label = "Yanukovych's\npresidency"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             label.padding = unit(0, "lines"),
             size = 3
             )

We can detect a significant decreasing pattern for Ukraine’s freedom of movement under Yanukovych’s administration. Surely, it is not a coincidence that his last year in office triggered the Revolution of Dignity and caused a further curtailment of freedom of movement in both countries.

4.2.5 Personal integrity and security

Five indicators capture different types of violations, such as forced labor, torture, and political and extra-judicial disappearances and killings. To capture personal security more broadly, two general indicators on political violence and physical integrity rights were also included, which pertain to different types of human rights violations, conflict and, violence and distinguishes between various levels. The seven indicators were aggregated into the personal integrity and security subcomponent using item response theory.

graph_index("personal_integrity_and_security_A2") +
  geom_segment(aes(x = rep(c(2005, 2014), 2),
                   y = c(rep(0.52, 2), rep(0.25, 2)),
                   xend = rep(c(2005, 2014), 2),
                   yend = c(rep(0.58, 2), rep(0.28, 2))
                   ),
                 color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = c(2005, 2014),
                 y = rep(0.55, 2),
                 label = c("Yushchenko became\npresident",
                           "The Dignity Revolution")
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             )

Ukraine’s state of personal integrity and security reached its peak after Yushchenko took the office, then it descended to its valley after The Revolution of Dignity. In Russia, the value is decreasing constantly with a small slope.

4.2.6 Social group equality

Five V-Dem expert-coded indicators and four V-Dem indices were used to measure social group equality, the first of the social rights and equality subcomponents. Four of the underlying questions ask about social class and identity group inequalities with regard to civil liberties and political power distribution. The fifth asks about the representation of disadvantaged social groups. Four indices provide measures of socio-economic, political, social and urban-rural exclusion. One additional indicator from International Country Risk Guider (ICRG) reflects the extent of religious and/or ethnic tensions. The ten indicators were aggregated into the social group equality subcomponent using item response theory.

graph_index("social_group_equality_A2") +
  geom_segment(aes(x = rep(2014, 2),
                   y = c(0.62, 0.45),
                   xend = rep(2014, 2),
                   yend = c(0.7, 0.47)
                   ),
               color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2014,
                 y = 0.66,
                 label = "The independence of\nCrimea, Donetsk and Luhansk"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             )

The social group equality state has consistently deteriorated after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Moreover, the situation became worse in Ukraine after the independence of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk.

4.2.7 Basic welfare

The provision of basic welfare is measured using standard observable human development indicators: infant mortality rate, life expectancy, kilocalories per person per day, literacy rate and average years of schooling. In addition, two expert-based indicators from V-Dem were included that assess whether everyone in a given society has access to basic education and health care. All the indicators reflect the extent to which the basic needs of the population are being met. The seven indicators were aggregated into the basic welfare subcomponent using item response theory.

graph_index("basic_welfare_A2") +
  geom_segment(aes(x = 2014,
                   y = 0.4,
                   xend = 2014,
                   yend = 0.5
                   ),
               color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2017,
                 y = 0.45,
                 label = "Poroshenko &\nZelenskyy"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3,
             label.padding = unit(0, "lines")
             )

Both countries improved their basic welfare in the past 30 years, and are ahead of the world’s average in this regard. However, Ukraine started to lag behind Russia after Poroshenko’s presidency.

4.2.8 Gender equality

Three expert-coded indicators from V-Dem were used to operationalize gender equality—power distribution by gender, female participation in civil society organizations and gender-based exclusion—as well as two expert-coded indicators from CIRIGHTS on women’s political and economic rights. Two observational indicators are also included on the ratio between female and male mean years of schooling (IHME), and the proportion of lower chamber female legislators (V-Dem). The seven indicators were aggregated into the gender equality subcomponent using item response theory.

graph_index("gender_equality_A2") +
  geom_segment(aes(x = rep(c(2005, 2010), 2),
                   y = c(rep(0.75, 2), rep(0.45, 2)),
                   xend = rep(c(2005, 2010), 2),
                   yend = c(rep(0.78, 2), rep(0.47, 2))
                   ),
               color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2007.5,
                 y = 0.765,
                 label = "Yushchenko's\npresidency"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3,
             label.padding = unit(0, "lines")
             )

Yushchenko’s presidency was a great leap for gender equality in Ukraine. He struggled to adopt the EU’s gender equality standards in Ukraine. In comparison to Ukraine, Russia’s gender equality during Putin-era is inferior but stable.

4.3 Checks on government

Besides regular elections, the exercise of political power needs to be continuously subjected to scrutiny. If the other branches of government (the legislature and the judiciary) or a critical and pluralistic press do not check executive power, they are more prone to be abused for private gain and too biased political decision-making and implementation. Vertical accountability through elections should be supplemented by horizontal accountability between elections. The three subattributes were aggregated into the Checks on Government index using Bayesian factor analysis.

4.3.1 Effective parliament

The effectiveness of parliament subattribute denotes the extent to which the legislature is capable of overseeing the executive. It includes three indicators from the V-Dem experts’ survey that tap fairly directly into the effectiveness of parliament. Another V-Dem indicator on executive oversight and the executive constraints indicator from Polity are included as they capture relevant aspects of institutional Checks on Government not covered by judicial independence and media integrity. The five indicators were aggregated into the media integrity subattribute using item response theory.

graph_index("effective_parliament_A3") +
  geom_segment(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.3, xend = 2000, yend = 0.42),
               color = "#D62828"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2000, 
                 y = 0.36,
                 label = "Putin became president"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             )

Although Ukraine’s state of effective parliament waxed and waned several times Putin’s Russia didn’t fare as well as Ukraine in this subattribute. As the latest data shows, Ukraine’s performance was far better than Russia’s and on top of the world’s average.

4.3.2 Judicial Independence

The judicial independence subattribute denotes the extent to which the courts are not subject to undue influence from the other branches of government, especially the executive. Since the current framework places judicial independence under the attribute concerning Checks on Government, it is important to supplement the four judicial independence indicators with two indicators on government compliance with the courts. The six indicators were aggregated into the media integrity subattribute using item response theory.

graph_index("judicial_independence_A3") +
  geom_segment(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.1, xend = 2000, yend = 0.24),
               color = "#D62828"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2000, 
                 y = 0.17,
                 label = "Putin became president"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             )

Unsurprisingly, Putin nearly annihilated judicial independence which is a nuisance for a dictatorship. Ukraine did a better job than Russia, but both are below the world’s average.

4.3.3 Media integrity

The media integrity subattribute denotes the extent to which the media landscape offers diverse and critical coverage of political issues. Media integrity and freedom of expression are related. Nonetheless, the media can do a poor job controlling the government even in a situation of media freedom if they are very one-sided, uncritical, superficial or corrupt. V-Dem offers indicators that reflect these additional circumstances. These indicators are based on expert surveys in addition to an in-house coded indicator from the Global Media Freedom Dataset (MFD), which indicates whether the media are critical of the government and its officials. The five indicators were aggregated into the media integrity subattribute using Bayesian factor analysis.

Ukraine_seg <- tibble(x = rep(c(1994, 2005, 2010, 2014, 2019), 2),
                      y = c(rep(0.75, 5), rep(0.3, 5)),
                      xend = rep(c(1994, 2005, 2010, 2014, 2019), 2),
                      yend = c(rep(0.8, 5), rep(0.34, 5))
                      )
Ukraine_presidents <- tibble(x = c(1992.5, 2000, 2007.5, 2012, 2016.5, 2021),
                             y = rep(0.78, 6),
                             label = c("Kravchuk", "Kuchma", "Yushchenko",                                             "Yanukovych", "Poroshenko", "Zelenskyy")
                             )
                      
graph_index("media_integrity_A3") +
  geom_segment(data = Ukraine_seg, 
               aes(x = x, y = y, xend = xend, yend = yend),
               color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_segment(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.3, xend = 2000, yend = 0.44),
               color = "#D62828"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.37,
                 label = "Putin became president"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             ) +
  geom_label(data = Ukraine_presidents,
             aes(x = x,
                 y = y,
                 label = label
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3,
             label.padding = unit(0, "lines")
             )

4.4 Impartial administration

The government and the public administration more generally should implement official public policies in an impartial manner. If the implementation is unfair and unpredictable, large discrepancies between official laws and policies, on the one hand, and practices, on the other, undermine democratic principles. Thus, democracy is a matter not only of access to power and control of power, but also of the exercise of power. Since Impartial Administration to a large extent overlaps with the concept of the rule of law, this attribute is also rooted in the tradition that emphasizes the liberal aspects of democracy. The two subattributes were aggregated into the Impartial Administration index using Bayesian factor analysis.

4.4.1 Absence of corruption

The absence of corruption subattribute denotes the extent to which the executive and the public administration, more broadly, do not abuse their office for personal gain. Four V-Dem indicators explicitly refer to corruption in the government broadly understood, i.e., the executive and public administration more generally (but excluding courts and parliaments). In addition to these, the Global State of Democracy makes use of another expert-coded but broader indicator on government corruption from the International Country Risk Guider (ICRG) data set. The five indicators have been aggregated into the absence of corruption subattribute using item response theory.

Ukraine_seg <- tibble(x = rep(c(1994, 2005, 2010, 2014, 2019), 2),
                      y = c(rep(0.48, 5), rep(0.16, 5)),
                      xend = rep(c(1994, 2005, 2010, 2014, 2019), 2),
                      yend = c(rep(0.5, 5), rep(0.18, 5))
                      )

graph_index("absence_of_corruption_A4") +
  geom_segment(data = Ukraine_seg, 
               aes(x = x, y = y, xend = xend, yend = yend),
               color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_segment(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.16, xend = 2000, yend = 0.22),
               color = "#D62828"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.18,
                 label = "Putin became president"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             ) +
  geom_label(data = Ukraine_presidents,
             aes(x = x, y = 0.49, label = label),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3,
             label.padding = unit(0, "lines")
             )

With every new president in Ukraine, we can detect a different trend in the state of absence of corruption. Russia after Putin improved slowly but constantly.

4.4.2 Predictable enforcement

The predictable enforcement subattribute denotes the extent to which the executive and public officials enforce laws in a predictable manner. To measure predictable enforcement, five expert-coded V-Dem indicators were included: the executive’s respect for constitutional provisions, the presence of transparent laws with predictable enforcement, rule-abidingness in the public sector, meritocratic appointment criteria in the state administration and armed forces. To these was added an indicator from the International Country Risk Guider (ICRG) (also expert-coded) on the strength and expertise of the bureaucracy. The six indicators were aggregated into the predictable enforcement subattribute using item response theory.

graph_index("predictable_enforcement_A4") +
  geom_segment(aes(x = 2014,
                   y =  0.08,
                   xend = 2014,
                   yend =  0.25
                   ),
               color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = c(2014, 2017),
                 y = c(0.2, 0.13),
                 label = c("Independence of Crimea,\nDonetsk and Luhansk",
                           "Poroshenko &\nZelenskyy")
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             label.padding = unit(0, "lines"),
             size = 3
             )

Except for The Revolution of Dignity, which plummeted Ukraine’s score, both countries fared very similarly. Since 2014 under Poroshenko and Zelenskyy’s administrations, Ukraine has improved in this subattribute.

4.5 Paticipatory engagement

Participatory Engagement represents the fifth of the five attributes of democracy developed by International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy Indices.

4.5.1 Civil society engagement

The measurement of civil society participation relies on six V-Dem indicators. They result from an expert survey and consider the extent to which the population is engaged in civil society activities, including political associations and independent trade unions.

Ukraine_seg = tibble(x = rep(c(2014, 2015, 2019), 2),
                     y = c(rep(0.64, 3), rep(0.4, 3)),
                     xend = rep(c(2014, 2015, 2019), 2),
                     yend = c(c(0.7, rep(0.67,2)), rep(0.43, 3))
                     )
graph_index("civil_society_participation_A5") +
  geom_segment(data = Ukraine_seg, 
               aes(x = x, y = y, xend = xend, yend = yend),
               color = "#FCB322"
               ) +
  geom_segment(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.4, xend = 2000, yend = 0.44),
               color = "#D62828"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = c(2014, 2017, 2020.5),
                 y = c(0.69, rep(0.65, 2)),
                 label = c("The Revolution of Dignity",
                           "Poroshenko",
                           "Zelenskyy")
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             label.padding = unit(0, "lines"),
             size = 3
             ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.42,
                 label = "Putin became president"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             )

Civil society participation deteriorated in Russia after Putin took the office but remained constant. Unlike most of the previous subattributes in Ukraine which worsened as a result of The Revolution of Dignity, this subattribute improved after the revolution. During Poroshenko’s term, civil society improved then worsened due to his controversial decisions. After Zelenskyy the situation improved again.

4.5.2 Electoral participation

The level of electoral participation for the adult voting age population (VAP) in the last national election.

graph_index("electoral_participation_A5") +
  expand_limits(y = c(0.4, 0.85))

Ukraine’s electoral participation declined during the past three decades. Russia had a somehow mixed result with many ups and downs.

4.5.3 Direct democracy

V-Dem offers the only comprehensive data set in the form of the direct democracy index developed by David Altman (2016). It is based on observable variables on the formal opportunities for and actual use of different instruments of direct democracy at the national level. However, it seems pertinent to take into account whether mechanisms of direct democracy are available and used in a context where elections are generally respected as the main source of political power. To do so, the electoral indicator from Regime Types and Regime Changes: A New Dataset(BRRD) is also used here. The measure of direct democracy and the electoral index are multiplied to estimate the subattribute score.

graph_index("direct_democracy_A5") +
  expand_limits(y = c(-0.08, 0.48))

This article explains The problem of a declining state of direct democracy in Ukraine: “It should be said that the institutions of direct democracy, enveloped in populist slogans of Ukrainian politicians are a rather abstract form of expressing the will of the nation. There is also a psychological barrier and the lack of confidence in the authorities of public administration. Moreover, strikes and demonstrations after the social events of 2004 and 2014 became a more effective form of influence on political decisions than going to the polls.” On the other hand, a massive constitutional referendum was held in Russia in 2020 which improved the state of direct democracy in Russia after many years of stagnation.

4.5.4 Sub-national elections

V-Dem is also the only provider of a comprehensive, cross-national dataset on subnational elections. The local government index indicates whether the local government is elected and whether it is empowered in relation to the central government, while another indicator assesses the freedom and fairness of subnational elections.

graph_index("local_democracy_A5") +
  geom_segment(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.25, xend = 2000, yend = 0.35),
               color = "#D62828"
               ) +
  geom_label(aes(x = 2000, y = 0.3,
                 label = "Putin became president"
                 ),
             label.size = NA,
             size = 3
             )

Regarding local democracy, Russia moved downward after Putin’s inauguration in 2000 but finally improved in 2020. Ukraine’s situation was more constant during the same period with occasional ups and downs.

5 Conclusion

We saw throughout this notebook that after Putin took the helm in 2000, in comparison to the world and Ukraine, Russia’s state of democracy declined in most of the attributes and subattributes. On the other hand, Zelenskyy’s Ukraine improved significantly towards a full-fledged democracy. And guess what is the worst nightmare for a dictator? A mature, strong, and thriving democracy in the neighborhood. As a final word, Oksana Markarova, The Ukrainian ambassador to the US, made Putin’s motivation in invading Ukraine clear:

We’re not a threat to Russia unless being a democracy and living peacefully in your own country is a threat.

6 Acknowledgment

This notebook is highly inspired by R for political science website. It is a collection of beautiful visualizations of political data using R. Many thanks to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) who gathered and freely shared the comprehensive dataset of the Global State of Democracy (GSod).